The high-speed train have been developed and used in many countries around the world for many decades. The system has proved it self as the alternative solution of transportation system. In European countries, the high-speed train system connected the big city or capital in each region to each other and it help people to connect to neighbor countries with a shorter time than usually transportation except airplane.
High-speed rail or HSR is a type of passenger rail transport that operates significantly faster than the normal speed of rail traffic. In European country, the maximum speed of the train has been recorded in the Maglev train system, developed by Siemens, with the speeds of 431 km/hr. Maglev is the most advanced high-speed train system in the world. The first commercial line has been built in Shanghia China, which connected Shanghia with Pudong airport. It took only 8 minute instead of 30 to 45 minute on the usual road to take a passenger travel from the airport to the heart of Shanghai.
The beginning of the high-speed train can be trace back to the period of pre World War II, Italian built RTR200 was the first high speed service train that achieved the world mean speed record in 1938 near city of Milan. However, the true high-speed train is the Japanese made Shinkansen. The Japanese success made a contributed to a revival for the HSR idea in Europe, the first high-speed system that has been developed after the great success of Shinkansen is the Germany build system which has followed by the legendary French built TGV.
Here in Thailand, for many years that analyze has studied about the possibility of the high-speed train system in Thailand. The result is very questionable. When we concern to the factors of the economic, there is only one rout that will be benefit with economics reasons. The economics zone in the east part region, both in Rayoung and Jantaburee that consist of many industrial factory in huge industrialize area, this area is considered the best rote to start the high-speed train, however due to the short distance from Bangkok to the industrialize area, it might not share economics reasons if we invest in this rout.
Why high speed train?
To answer this question, we have to look at the position of Thailand in both political issues that including the national relationship and the geographical area. In the both issue, in the next few years, the economics in the south east Asia will become the same market or single market. As we know that the high-speed train system has been built in china and it will be connect to system that are being build in Laos. The new route of train in Laos is being finance by long-term loan from Chinese government. Today not only Laos government that sign the contract with Chinese, but also Thai Government that P.M. Apisit had traveled to China few month ago to negotiate with the high representative from Chinese government but also the head of the Chinese railways department. After the negotiation, Thai and Chinese were succeed in the agreement to connect both country railways though other country in Asean. The new system for high speed train will be build in three different rout by the important rout that will connect five country to each other by the high-speed system will be the line from Bangkok to the North East section of Thailand, it will pass though Nongkrai province and connect to the Laos railways system. The second line will be the original plane to build the rout in the eastern seaboard and the last one is the rout that will connect Bangkok to Malaysia though the southern part of Thailand.
Not only the convenient that come from the High-speed train but also the reduce in time to carry passengers and goods with more greater faster, and when the Asean community has becoming the single market, Thailand will definitely be the production base and central hubs of the Asean community.
If we take a closer look in this region, the city that has ability enough to connect the high-speed system are Bangkok, Singapore, Kurlalampore, Penang, Hoshimin city, Panompaing, Viet chang. To connect thses city together we could classify the rout into four different routs. First, the southern line with 1900 kilometers, starting from Bangkok to Suratani and separated into two lines, one to Phuket and the other will pass though Malaysia and ended at Singapore. Second line will be the Northern one, 1100 kilometers beginning from Bangkok to the northern part of Thailand and run into Burma and ended in Kunming China. Third rout is the East Northern rout that starting here in Bangkok and ended at Laos which will be connect to China by the being build rout to china and the other will reach Vietnam in Hanoi. The last rout will be the eastern seaboard rout, which will connect to Cambodia and ended in Vietnam in Hoshimin city.
The confirmed rout that I have mention in the previous paper has only three, however it has show us that the high speed train in the south east Asia region will becoming operational in less than a decades. High speed train is considered to be a mega project, the objective of the system is to place a good transportation system that fast, convenient, environmental friendly and try to improve to quality of life which is the important indicators of the long term vision of the transportation in the next centuries and it is very important to make it reality instead of imaginary.
The comparison study of time that will be using by high-speed train and the commercial airline has discovered that the high-speed train( if travel at the speed of 360 kilometers per hours. ) will be able to gain a share of passenger from the commercial airline by Singapore 10%, Kuala Lumpur 30%, Penang 70%, Hoshimin city 85%, Vietshang 90%, more over the domestic travel will also help to gain an additional share from the local airline.
Uncertainty Connection
The bigger problem for Thailand according to the economic plane if we take a look inside the high-speed train system, in 2017, we expected to have 128000 passengers per day and up to 192000 passengers when entering the 2032. The projection might be over value due to the fact of marketing and the ability of the passengers that could be able to buy a ticket and those who could not buy, especially those who live in the North East region which is the poorest area of Thailand, Laos which a few percentage of population could afford the dramatically high price of ticket if compare to the other alternative option, China area is not the exception due to the income inconsistency between the major city of China in the Eastern seaboard and the area in the west that is stay with far more convenient. The prediction of the principle has to be adjusted with the requirement of the additional fund. However, if we put it in positive direction, the high-speed train does not only carry a passenger but it also carry a goods and merchandize but the problem is still arise when some analyze give a point that which cargo that is need to be delivered in such a fast transport, because most of the goods do not require such a fast transportation, the usual train will be enough.
Dynamic of Connection
When the high-speed train contract between Thailand and China has started, the interesting in the region is the dynamic of connected of the transportation network especially in Cambodia.
Information from the Asian development bank or ADB has shown us the visionary of the Cambodia government to connect the Sihanouk ville port to the capital at Panompaign with the distance of 240 kilometers. This is one of the two routs that have been developed by government, the other rout will be 350 kilometers which connect the capital with Poipade and might be connected into Thailand territory. ADB expected that this rout will be operation in May 2012, the loan from Australia International Aid agency is the main source of funding that Cambodia government has with the approximately about 170 million U.S. dollars. However Vietnam is the country that share a less interest in this project while Malaysia seem to be the most enthusiastic to the project. Keretapi Tanah Melayu Berhad ( KTMB ) is the provider of train transport in the Malaya peninsula has share the most important to the project, with the hope to reduce the number of personal vehicle, the number of cargo and passenger has keep increasing everyday.
Job Creation
Recent data about the high-speed train in the Asean region has been disclosed, according to the data and news, China is the most important player that witches to see the success of the project in the next three to five years. However, Thai authority has suspected that if the project has been delayed, Thailand will be the one who received the bigger impacted than the others event the agreement of the period of time is not clarify, but it has a question about the position of main land China in this project.
First, it has not been confirmed yet for Thai government to receive the huge long term lone from China due to the large amount of money in the contract will be high almost ten billions U.S. dollar, event the low interest payment to this loan, but it has to trade off with the agreement that the logistic and other important structure in the project will be build by a Chinese worker and Chinese engineer, the question that need to be answer from Thai government about the job creation for both labor and engineer. If government could not answer this question, a lot more will be follow. To create a sustainable human capital to be able to work with this high-tech staff, learning and studying need to be carrier out though the construction, if government allows some of the technical expert from china to control the construction, Thai worker should be working parallel with the engineer from china to learn and get the experience from the expertise. The main goal of the job creation and improve the quality of Thai workforce is to make them a long term sustainable, or make it another way to make them learn and teach to the next generation.
Political Influence
Today, the current government of Thailand has not been allocated the government spending with a great potential or the great benefit of society, as we known, this government has not been power by the election but came to power by the law and constitution of Thailand which make a bad image to the government. Event this government try to increase the government spending into many project by concentrate to the infrastructure but those project has been criticize about the corruption by the local authority and government themselves. The high-speed train it self has been affected from the government stability and also questionable to the corruption problem due to the magnificent cost of the project. With the general election in 2011, it might be difficult to both the government and local authority to comply with the project, some of the permanent civil services are afraid of the punishment by the next government if current government is not elected in the near future. This had happened before in 2006 when the military coup had punished a lot of personal in charge of corruption.
Efficiency
The high-speed train will be more efficient than any of the transportation system due to the original source of power come from electricity, in Europe and Japan, high-speed train have been used a power from the nuclear power plant, China is starting to build a lot more of nuclear power plant which will be supply the energy to the high-speed train system and reduce the original type of fossil and oil consumption train. In Thailand, most of the energy that we use to produce electrical city are came from fossil, oil and natural gas. Some how in the near future, the Thailand electricity has study the possibility of nuclear power plant in Thailand. Nuclear power is environmental friendly and it is very cheap when we compare to those that we use today. The price of oil price has been a major effect factor to Thai railways, Train that we operate today are consume a lot of oil, with the increasing of oil price in the world market, the principle cost to make the train to operate is getting higher in the same direction of the oil price. The high-speed train will be help to reduce the cost of using energy with the more efficient of power consumption.
Maglev or High-Speed Rail
The maglev system is the answer to the future of the transportation system and it is very fast to take passenger to travel from place to another with a same capacity of the ordinary train but with the shorter amount of time. The high-speed train is also fast and can carry the same amount of passengers but with the slower speed. Both type are a great transportation system, however with the high technology of maglev, the value of the system from Pudong Airport to the central on Shanghai is astronomical. The money that use to build the maglev system in Shanghai could be build a high-speed train from shanghai to any major city in China with a longer in distance.
The answer to Thai system is certainly a high-speed train not the Maglev due to the cost and budget that Thailand could effort could not compare to China that today is considered to be the second largest economy in the world and may be in a few decades may become the number one instead of U.S.
Personal Experience
This year, China had owned the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai; I have an opportunity to travel to visit Shanghai for the first time by the transportation system in Shanghai.
From airport, I use the Maglev system to enter the heart of the city, it takes me only 8 minute instead of 30 minute on the ordinary road and I could say that maglev is the best system in the world, the quality of the system is the standard worldwide or better I presume. After I have visited the world expo, I also have a time to use the high speed train in china which I believe is the equivalent one that will be builds in Thailand if the project is passing the house of representative. The high speed system that is operate in china has been developed by the engineering in the China and build by the china work force, the quality could be match the maglev and the world wild one. No sound when you sitting on the seat, only the loudly noise of Chinese that seem to be bad for the entire journey.
In my opinion, when I went to Japan, the train system in Tokyo make me very confuse , however when I got on board the train, everything around me has silent, the train starting to move slowly from the platform, no single sound that I heard only the breath of the passengers that sit with me. This is the same feeling that I faced with the high-speed train in China except the crowd noise of Chinese guys.
Conclusion
For Thailand, high-speed train will be the new century of the transportation system that has ever happened after the commercial airline, more over the cost of operation and environmental friendly is even better than the Airliners event many will argue that the cost of the system when starting to build will be astronomical and corruption will definitely be involve in this project. But if the success of the project in the next five year will be the gaunter of the cost efficiency and reduce the consumption of oil which is very expensive day by day. Not only the economics reasons but also the political factor that will be benefit from the project, Thailand will be coming the hub of the transport by train for the whole region from China to Singapore, the centre of production and FDI will be flow into Thailand because Thailand as the hub or center of the region will be the right place to manufacture or merchandize goods and services to the neighbor countries.
Many it is hard to decide to build the system due to the cost of the project and corruption that will be involve the project and other sub problem in the project, but the consequences and the following benefit that Thailand will gain will be magnificent over the cost of the project in recent years, the great century and great success will need a lot of risk to involve, from the aspect on both economic and political criteria, Thailand will be gain a lot from this and what is the good reason not to build the high-speed train? It will be a lot of confrontation between both side weather to build or not, but when the project is operation, it will proof it selves that it is worth to do.
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